Why Senegal may be considered a “fragile / at-risk state”.

Senegal is often viewed as relatively stable in West Africa, but it still faces structural vulnerabilities that may push it toward fragility:

Rising public debt and fiscal pressures: in recent years, Senegal’s fiscal deficit has widened, and revenue shortfalls undermine its ability to finance essential services.

Regional security threats and internal tensions: the Casamance region has long been a hotspot of separatist conflict, and spillovers from Sahel insurgencies create security risks.

Institutional weaknesses and governance challenges: Despite democratic processes, there are concerns about transparency, arbitrary detention, and concentration of executive power.

Economic dependence and exposure: A significant share of the population remains vulnerable to agricultural risks (droughts, floods), commodity price shocks, and external demand fluctuations.